How much credibility do you put in early presidential polls?

Three years ago right now, Joe Lieberman was leading in Iowa. Then Howard Dean was polling ahead of the field, but John Kerry won the primary, got the nomination and lost the election. Here we are, 6 months out of the Iowa caucus, and an ARG poll puts Obama leading in SC, tied with Hillary in New Hampshire, and down significantly in Iowa. All the national polls generally indicate Hillary is leading the field, but with different margins.





www.americanresearchgroup.com|||I have as much faith in these polls as Hillary Clinton has of winning the nomination to be president of the United States.|||early polls are driven by the Media in an effort to "make news" where none exists and drive ratings





It is easier and cheaper to do than "real news"|||They portray an indication of what the nation feels now (despite the knockers they are scientific and do represent the nation). This in itself will drive change in the way candidates present and conduct themselves. Whatsmore there are very possibly leading candidates that have not officially entered the race at the point where polls are taken. Hence it is ridiculous to assume either of the following


1. Clinton is in front therefore she will win it


2. Bill Clinton was not in front and he won so therefore polls mean nothing.


What the polls do tell us is that Clinton is in front and the others have some catching up to do. It also tells us that certain candidates are beginning to slide (eg Obama, McCain) and that others are builidng support fast (Thompson).|||None, they are all a**holes and I don't vote or bother with them. Hiliary Clinton is and still always remains the President of the USA because no one can stop Hiliary because she knows what she's doing.





Much Love


Peace %26amp; Happiness|||NONE|||Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter were not even blips on America's radar screen, yet both were elected President. Early polls have little meaning except to present a snapshot of public awareness of the various candidates, Political advisers use these numbers, broken down by region, to determine where to focus campaign resources. Other than that, these early polls are of no use to anyone.|||It seems like it's getting easier and easier to 'rig' big events.